As climate variability and change reshapes our oceans, the long-term effectiveness of spatial management approaches such as marine protected areas (MPAs) is increasingly called into question, especially for highly mobile species like whales, sharks, sea lions, and turtles that depend on vast swaths of ocean habitat. In a new study published in npj Ocean Sustainability, Nerea Lezama-Ochoa tackled this challenge by offering a framework to identify future “climate-smart” areas: places that will either continue to support key species despite climate change (climate refugia) or emerge as new strongholds (bright spots). This work used eight ecologically and economically important case study species, projecting how suitable habitat along the US west coast and within four National Marine Sanctuaries (NMS) might shift by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario.

This study’s findings provide a mix of optimism and caution. On average, 38% of sanctuary areas were identified as climate refugia, with blue sharks faring particularly well (98% refugia), while species like leatherback turtles may still find critical refuge along the California coast. However, humpback whales, California sea lions, and thresher sharks could see significant declines in suitable habitat within these sanctuaries, highlighting the emergence of “dark spots” where habitats are predicted to deteriorate. The analysis also revealed potential bright spots—new areas that could become suitable habitats in the future—especially for blue whales and swordfish. This nuanced picture underscores the need to adapt conservation strategies to dynamic, climate-driven habitat changes.

By mapping where climate refugia and bright spots are most likely to exist, this framework provides a valuable decision-support tool for marine managers aiming to build resilience into protected area networks. It offers a path forward for proactively safeguarding biodiversity: protecting not only current habitats but also anticipating future shifts. As global initiatives like the “30 by 30” target (to protect 30% of oceans by 2030) gain momentum, studies like this one are essential to ensure that MPAs remain effective under rapidly changing conditions. Ultimately, integrating these climate-informed insights into spatial planning could be key to sustaining marine life and the human communities that rely on healthy ocean ecosystems.